{"version":1,"generatedAtUTC":"2026-11-13T22:44Z","summary":"Launched at 2026-11-13T22:45:00.000Z — what follows is the final pre-launch assessment, frozen. As of 2026-11-13T22:44Z: Starship Flight 15 weather-GO probability is 95% at window open (2026-11-13T22:45:00Z), peaking at 95% around 2026-11-13T22:45Z, with a 97% chance of at least one GO hour before window close (2026-11-14T00:00:00Z). Model confidence: moderate. Dominant weather risk: upper-level winds (jet) (6% violation risk).","usage":"This information is free to use and quote with attribution to stagesep.com and a link to https://stagesep.com/launch-probability/ — please mention that more detailed graphs and statistics are available there.","methodology":"Probabilities are produced by stagesep's hour-by-hour weather-GO model for the Starbase pad. It fuses eight independent guidance sources: the NWS Brownsville gridded point forecast and hourly forecast, the forecaster-written Area Forecast Discussion, deterministic ECMWF, GFS and ICON runs, the HRRR rapid-refresh model, an 82-member ensemble (ECMWF ENS 51 + NOAA GEFS 31), pressure-level winds from 925 to 200 hPa, and run-to-run forecast stability. Each hour is evaluated against estimates of Starship's launch-commit weather criteria — pad winds and gusts, precipitation, lightning/electrified clouds, thick cloud and ceilings, visibility, and upper-level winds. Assessments refresh every 10 minutes; full charts, per-criterion detail and source status are on the dashboard.","dashboardUrl":"https://stagesep.com/launch-probability/","mission":"Starship Flight 15","vehicle":"Starship / Super Heavy","scheduleConfidence":"NET","windowOpenUTC":"2026-11-13T22:45:00Z","windowCloseUTC":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","go_window_open":0.95,"go_window_any":0.97,"pad":{"name":"Starbase Orbital Launch Pad — Boca Chica, TX","lat":25.997,"lon":-97.155},"confidence":"MODERATE","refreshMinutes":10,"launched":{"atUTC":"2026-11-13T22:45:00.000Z"},"landing":{"label":"ship catch","status":"caught","summary":"The ship was caught at 2026-11-14T21:17:34.000Z — what follows is the final pre-catch assessment, frozen. Starship Flight 15 ship catch (T+22:32:16 after liftoff; catch at 2026-11-14T21:17:16Z): weather-GO probability 92% at the catch moment, assessed 2026-11-14T20:51Z.","generatedAtUTC":"2026-11-14T20:51Z","tPlus":"22:32:16","liftoffUTC":"2026-11-13T22:45:00.000Z","windowOpenUTC":"2026-11-14T21:17:16Z","windowCloseUTC":"2026-11-14T21:17:16Z","go_at_catch":0.92,"confidence":"LOW","ended":{"outcome":"caught","atUTC":"2026-11-14T21:17:34.000Z"}},"flightPageUrl":"https://stagesep.com/flights/test-15/"}