{"version":1,"generatedAtUTC":"2026-08-13T01:34Z","status":"awaiting-window","summary":"No launch window has been announced yet for Starship Flight 14 (NET Aug 20 per FAA filing — window/time not yet announced). The weather-GO model is standing by and resumes hour-by-hour assessments as soon as SpaceX sets a window. In the meantime it is assessing a hypothetical window on Aug 20 (2026-08-20T22:45:00Z–2026-08-21T00:15:00Z, assuming the FAA-filed NET date and usual launch window): current estimate — roughly 70% odds that weather would permit a launch at some point in that window, 63% at its open, model confidence high. These are unofficial stagesep estimates for a window SpaceX has NOT announced — treat them as an outlook, not a forecast for a real attempt. The previous flight, Starship Flight 13, launched 2026-07-24T22:51:00Z; its final pre-launch assessment is preserved at https://stagesep.com/flights/test-13/public/latest.json.","usage":"This information is free to use and quote with attribution to stagesep.com and a link to https://stagesep.com/launch-probability/ — please mention that more detailed graphs and statistics are available there.","methodology":"Probabilities are produced by stagesep's hour-by-hour weather-GO model for the Starbase pad. It fuses eight independent guidance sources: the NWS Brownsville gridded point forecast and hourly forecast, the forecaster-written Area Forecast Discussion, deterministic ECMWF, GFS and ICON runs, the HRRR rapid-refresh model, an 82-member ensemble (ECMWF ENS 51 + NOAA GEFS 31), pressure-level winds from 925 to 200 hPa, and run-to-run forecast stability. Each hour is evaluated against estimates of Starship's launch-commit weather criteria — pad winds and gusts, precipitation, lightning/electrified clouds, thick cloud and ceilings, visibility, and upper-level winds. Assessments refresh every 10 minutes; full charts, per-criterion detail and source status are on the dashboard.","dashboardUrl":"https://stagesep.com/launch-probability/","mission":"Starship Flight 14","vehicle":"Starship / Super Heavy","scheduleConfidence":"NET","windowOpenUTC":null,"windowCloseUTC":null,"go_window_open":null,"go_window_any":null,"windowEstimate":"NET Aug 20 per FAA filing — window/time not yet announced","netEstimate":{"note":"UNOFFICIAL stagesep estimate for a hypothetical launch window SpaceX has not announced, assessed with the same weather-GO model as a real window.","basis":"the FAA-filed NET date and usual launch window","assumedWindowOpenUTC":"2026-08-20T22:45:00Z","assumedWindowCloseUTC":"2026-08-21T00:15:00Z","go_window_open":0.63,"go_window_any":0.7,"confidence":"HIGH","days":[{"openUTC":"2026-08-20T22:45:00Z","go_window_any":0.7},{"openUTC":"2026-08-21T22:45:00Z","go_window_any":0.59},{"openUTC":"2026-08-22T22:45:00Z","go_window_any":0.56},{"openUTC":"2026-08-23T22:45:00Z","go_window_any":0.64},{"openUTC":"2026-08-24T22:45:00Z","go_window_any":0.63},{"openUTC":"2026-08-25T22:45:00Z","go_window_any":0.51}],"previewIndexUrl":"https://stagesep.com/launch-probability/data/preview/index.json"},"pad":{"name":"Starbase Orbital Launch Pad — Boca Chica, TX","lat":25.997,"lon":-97.155},"confidence":null,"refreshMinutes":10,"lastFlight":{"mission":"Starship Flight 13","launchedAtUTC":"2026-07-24T22:51:00Z","pageUrl":"https://stagesep.com/flights/test-13/","assessmentJsonUrl":"https://stagesep.com/flights/test-13/public/latest.json"}}